2014 Potomac Manatees
Feb 5, 2014 10:17:23 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2014 10:17:23 GMT -5
Top 20 Prospects (Sickels)
*subject to change
1. Javier Baez, SS, Grade A (CUBS): Otherworldy bat speed and an aggressive approach plus the tools to (maybe) stay at shortstop if he can get the errors down. If not, he’d slot great at third base. There’s some risk here due to contact but I think he can be a Giancarlo Stanton-type hitter. The commonly-used Gary Sheffield comp works in terms of bat speed, but Sheffield had a much more refined approach and I don’t think Baez will hit for a Sheffield-like average. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a star. Baseball Prospectus Ranking: (4) MLB: (7)
2. Miguel Sano, 3B, Grade A (TWINS): Power-mashing beast, comparable to a young Miguel Cabrera. He may not hit for the high averages that the mature Cabrera has produced, but power should be similar. Sano has made a lot of progress with the glove and a move to first base is not automatic. BP: (14) MLB: (4)
3. Mark Appel, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. I like what I saw from him at Quad Cities: this guy is a major league pitcher if he avoids injuries. A superstar? No. But a safe bet to be a good solid starter who will log 200 innings with better-than-league average performance. Given the vagaries of the draft process, that has a lot of value.
4. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A- (BLUE JAYS): Not really concerned about the height "issue" given his combination of stuff and command. At worst he’ll have a great career as a reliever and at best he’s a number two starter. BP: (27) MLB: (55)
5. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Grade B+: Borderline A- (METS): He really needs to graduate because I’ve been writing about him for a long time and fatigue is setting in. I expect he’ll be a solid major league starting catcher with power and good defense, although batting average/OBP may be erratic. We’ll just have to see if his injury issues are bad luck or something more. BP: (48) MLB: (22)
6. Henry Owens, LHP, Grade B+ (RED SOX): Walk rate in Double-A was the only negative here, but the overall package looks like a sound number three starter to me, perhaps more. BP: (69) MLB: (30)
7. Jorge Soler, OF, Grade B+ (CUBS): Injury and questions about makeup hampered his stock somewhat in '13, but he crushed High-A pitching when healthy. If the intangibles don't get in the way he should be another potent bat. BP: (45) MLB: (49)
8. Raul Mondesi, SS, Grade B+: Borderline B (ROYALS): .261/.311/.361 line in Low-A wasn't great, but he was extremely young for the level at age 17 and observers praise his tools on both offense and defense. Glove ahead of bat at this point but could develop into a high batting average/moderate power guy, very valuable from shortstop. It will be interesting to see how quickly they push him. BP: (29) MLB: (38)
9. Michael Choice, OF: Grade B. Borderline B+. Not much left to prove after solid .302/.390/.445 Triple-A season, just needs the opportunity to play. Home run totals not completely in line with the plus raw power that scouts see, but I think it will come. BP: (79) MLB: (72)
10. Josh Bell, OF, Grade B: Borderline B+. Hit "just" 12 homers in Low-A, but 37 doubles and strong relative rate of production (wRC+132) are reasons for optimism. I think more home run power will come. Upside: Chili Davis after he lost his speed, a switch-hitting slugger with good plate discipline.
11. Arismendy Alcantara, INF, Grade B (CUBS): Took large step forward in Double-A, showing power, speed, improved on-base skills, and tools to excel defensively at second base. BP: (83) MLB: (89)
12. Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Grade B (ROYALS): Hit combined .298/.372/.429 at three levels with a good finish in Double-A. Hasn't developed his power yet but hits for average, makes decent contact, has a good arm, and is just 20 years old. I think he's a year away. BP: (99) MLB: (91)
13. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Grade B (BREWERS): Needs further command sharpening but his stuff seems solid enough to me, looks like a future number three or strong four starter. At worst he would slot in relief. Seems like the best bet among the starters the Brewers have in the high minors with more dominance potential than Taylor Jungmann or injury-plagued Jed Bradley and has better command than Johnny Hellweg. MLB: (83)
14. Sean Manaea, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Conservative grade until we see how he recovers from hip surgery and last spring's associated velocity decline. If healthy, has rotation anchor upside as three-pitch power lefty.
15. Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. One of my favorite college pitchers from the 2013 draft, the Oral Roberts product has a fine sinker, slider, and changeup combination and should/could develop into a mid-rotation presence assuming the standard caveats about young pitchers.
16. Jose Peraza, SS, Grade B-: Borderline B (BRAVES): Stole 64 bases in Low-A and has a slick glove at shortstop, but lack of power is problematic and I want to see how he handles High-A and Double-A pitching. Like Bethancourt, he will reach the majors on the strength of his defense and will probably have a long career, but will he be a strong regular or just a useful reserve?
17. Joey Gallo, 3B, Grade B-: What an extreme player. Enormous power, 39% of his hits last year were home runs. Extremely high strikeout rate makes his future unclear, however, could be a star or a moderately-productive slugger or a journeyman or a Triple-A washout who converts to pitching when he’s 28. Going to be an illuminating test case. BP: (95) MLB: (92)
18. Ian Clarkin, LHP, Grade B- (YANKEES): 2013 first-rounder didn’t pitch much in pro ball due to ankle injury. High school star from San Diego projects as a three-pitch southpaw starter with mid-rotation potential.
19. Barrett Barnes, OF, Grade B-: Injury-plagued ’13 season resulted in .268/.338/.399 line with 10 steals in 46 games in Low-A, but the tools that made him a supplemental first round pick from Texas Tech are still here. Still projects as a potential regular if health (and strike zone judgment) stand up.
20. Tim Cooney, LHP, Grade B-: Third round 2012 pick from Wake Forest posted outstanding 125/18 K/BB ratio in Double-A last year. Throws three solid pitches for strikes, keeps hitters off-balance like a master, should fit as fourth or fifth starter on a big league team.
21. Sam Selman, LHP, Grade B- (ROYALS): 3.38 ERA with 128/85 K/BB in 126 innings in High-A. Absolutely has to get the walks down at higher levels but excels at keeping the ball in the park with sinker and slider. Needs a third pitch to thrive as a starter and better command to avoid turning into Chris Dwyer.
22. Vic Black, RHP, Grade B- (METS): He can dominate out of the bullpen and has closer potential if he throws enough strikes. Nice pickup in the Marlon Byrd/John Buck deal with the Pirates.
23. Gosuke Katoh, 2B, Grade B- (Yankees): Strong debut from ’13 second-rounder with positive defensive reports and more pop than expected in rookie ball (.310/.402/.522). Beware GCL stars bearing hot stats, but Katoh has the scouting reports to back it up.
Steven Souza, OF, Grade B-: Older prospect turns 25 this month, held back earlier in his career by injuries, PED suspension, excessive strikeouts, and makeup issues. The Nationals didn’t give up on him because he has intriguing power/speed combination and will take a walk. High-shelf tools here and the skills have improved a lot. Just needs to keep himself together.
Tony Renda, 2B, Grade B-: Undersized 5-8 second baseman from University of California shows baseball skills, polished hitter with good plate discipline and some gap power, 48-for-57 in steals so far in his career, gets on base, steady glove, terrific makeup. We need to see him at higher levels but he has outperformed expectations in college as well as pro ball. Consistently plays above his tools and I think that will continue.
24. Carson Kelly, C-3B, Grade B-: Grade C+: He didn’t perform too well in A-ball last year and we’ll have to see how the conversion to catching from third base works out, but I still find Kelly’s bat to be intriguing with a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power. I believe in the potential that made him a second round pick in ’12 enough to show some patience at this stage.
25. Dorssys Paulino, SS, Grade B-: Borderline C+: High upside infielder struggled some in the Midwest League at age 18 but tools are obvious and he played better late in the year. Defensive tools may fit best at third base but he may not develop enough power for the hot corner.
26. Orlando Arcia, SS, Grade C+: Borderline B- (BREWERS): I love the glove, excellent defensive tools and more reliable than the typical 19 year old shortstop. Bat is weak at this point but I think it is developable given his knack for contact. I would not expect big numbers in the Florida State League, but seems like a guy with long-term value.
27. Mitch Haniger, OF, Grade C+: Borderline B- (BREWERS): No glaring strengths, but no huge weaknesses, does a lot of things reasonably well, good fielder with moderate power, could hit .260 with a decent OBP. Personification of a Brewers prospect.
28. Cody Martin, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B- (BRAVES): Could rank as high as 9. Workmanlike strike-thrower should be ready for major league trial in ’14, could be a fourth/fifth starter or fit a variety of bullpen roles. Closed in college at Gonzaga but Braves have used him as a starter with good results.
29. Michael Ynoa, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Possible outcomes: number two starter; number four starter; power closer; mediocre middle reliever; Triple-A washout. I recognize his immense potential but I want to see more to make sure he’s not the Dominican version of Todd Van Poppel.
30. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade C+ (BLUE JAYS): Tough to rank since he will miss most or all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery and recovery isn’t automatic for everyone. Good command of fastball/slider/changeup arsenal impressed Midwest League sources before he got hurt. MLB: (93)
Other C+: Ariel Pena, RHP (BREWERS), David Goforth, RHP (BREWERS), Johnny Hellweg, RHP, (BREWERS), Sean Gilmartin, LHP, (TWINS), Trayce Thompson, OF, (WHITE SOX), Mark Sappington, RHP, (ANGELS), Darnell Sweeney, SS, (DODGERS), Zane Evans, C, (ROYALS), Chris Bostick, 2B, (RANGERS), James Ramsey, OF, (CARDINALS), Max Muncy, 1B, (A'S), Tyler Naquin, OF, (INDIANS), Eury Perez, OF, (NATIONALS), Zach Walters, INF, (NATIONALS)
Others: Cameron Garfield, C (BREWERS), Caleb Gindl, OF (BREWERS), Drew Gagnon, RHP (BREWERS), Jorge Lopez, RHP (BREWERS), Nick Bucci, RHP (BREWERS), Jan Hernandez, 3B, (PHILLIES), Andrew Knapp, C, (PHILLIES)
*subject to change
1. Javier Baez, SS, Grade A (CUBS): Otherworldy bat speed and an aggressive approach plus the tools to (maybe) stay at shortstop if he can get the errors down. If not, he’d slot great at third base. There’s some risk here due to contact but I think he can be a Giancarlo Stanton-type hitter. The commonly-used Gary Sheffield comp works in terms of bat speed, but Sheffield had a much more refined approach and I don’t think Baez will hit for a Sheffield-like average. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a star. Baseball Prospectus Ranking: (4) MLB: (7)
2. Miguel Sano, 3B, Grade A (TWINS): Power-mashing beast, comparable to a young Miguel Cabrera. He may not hit for the high averages that the mature Cabrera has produced, but power should be similar. Sano has made a lot of progress with the glove and a move to first base is not automatic. BP: (14) MLB: (4)
3. Mark Appel, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. I like what I saw from him at Quad Cities: this guy is a major league pitcher if he avoids injuries. A superstar? No. But a safe bet to be a good solid starter who will log 200 innings with better-than-league average performance. Given the vagaries of the draft process, that has a lot of value.
4. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A- (BLUE JAYS): Not really concerned about the height "issue" given his combination of stuff and command. At worst he’ll have a great career as a reliever and at best he’s a number two starter. BP: (27) MLB: (55)
5. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Grade B+: Borderline A- (METS): He really needs to graduate because I’ve been writing about him for a long time and fatigue is setting in. I expect he’ll be a solid major league starting catcher with power and good defense, although batting average/OBP may be erratic. We’ll just have to see if his injury issues are bad luck or something more. BP: (48) MLB: (22)
6. Henry Owens, LHP, Grade B+ (RED SOX): Walk rate in Double-A was the only negative here, but the overall package looks like a sound number three starter to me, perhaps more. BP: (69) MLB: (30)
7. Jorge Soler, OF, Grade B+ (CUBS): Injury and questions about makeup hampered his stock somewhat in '13, but he crushed High-A pitching when healthy. If the intangibles don't get in the way he should be another potent bat. BP: (45) MLB: (49)
8. Raul Mondesi, SS, Grade B+: Borderline B (ROYALS): .261/.311/.361 line in Low-A wasn't great, but he was extremely young for the level at age 17 and observers praise his tools on both offense and defense. Glove ahead of bat at this point but could develop into a high batting average/moderate power guy, very valuable from shortstop. It will be interesting to see how quickly they push him. BP: (29) MLB: (38)
9. Michael Choice, OF: Grade B. Borderline B+. Not much left to prove after solid .302/.390/.445 Triple-A season, just needs the opportunity to play. Home run totals not completely in line with the plus raw power that scouts see, but I think it will come. BP: (79) MLB: (72)
10. Josh Bell, OF, Grade B: Borderline B+. Hit "just" 12 homers in Low-A, but 37 doubles and strong relative rate of production (wRC+132) are reasons for optimism. I think more home run power will come. Upside: Chili Davis after he lost his speed, a switch-hitting slugger with good plate discipline.
11. Arismendy Alcantara, INF, Grade B (CUBS): Took large step forward in Double-A, showing power, speed, improved on-base skills, and tools to excel defensively at second base. BP: (83) MLB: (89)
12. Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Grade B (ROYALS): Hit combined .298/.372/.429 at three levels with a good finish in Double-A. Hasn't developed his power yet but hits for average, makes decent contact, has a good arm, and is just 20 years old. I think he's a year away. BP: (99) MLB: (91)
13. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Grade B (BREWERS): Needs further command sharpening but his stuff seems solid enough to me, looks like a future number three or strong four starter. At worst he would slot in relief. Seems like the best bet among the starters the Brewers have in the high minors with more dominance potential than Taylor Jungmann or injury-plagued Jed Bradley and has better command than Johnny Hellweg. MLB: (83)
14. Sean Manaea, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Conservative grade until we see how he recovers from hip surgery and last spring's associated velocity decline. If healthy, has rotation anchor upside as three-pitch power lefty.
15. Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. One of my favorite college pitchers from the 2013 draft, the Oral Roberts product has a fine sinker, slider, and changeup combination and should/could develop into a mid-rotation presence assuming the standard caveats about young pitchers.
16. Jose Peraza, SS, Grade B-: Borderline B (BRAVES): Stole 64 bases in Low-A and has a slick glove at shortstop, but lack of power is problematic and I want to see how he handles High-A and Double-A pitching. Like Bethancourt, he will reach the majors on the strength of his defense and will probably have a long career, but will he be a strong regular or just a useful reserve?
17. Joey Gallo, 3B, Grade B-: What an extreme player. Enormous power, 39% of his hits last year were home runs. Extremely high strikeout rate makes his future unclear, however, could be a star or a moderately-productive slugger or a journeyman or a Triple-A washout who converts to pitching when he’s 28. Going to be an illuminating test case. BP: (95) MLB: (92)
18. Ian Clarkin, LHP, Grade B- (YANKEES): 2013 first-rounder didn’t pitch much in pro ball due to ankle injury. High school star from San Diego projects as a three-pitch southpaw starter with mid-rotation potential.
19. Barrett Barnes, OF, Grade B-: Injury-plagued ’13 season resulted in .268/.338/.399 line with 10 steals in 46 games in Low-A, but the tools that made him a supplemental first round pick from Texas Tech are still here. Still projects as a potential regular if health (and strike zone judgment) stand up.
20. Tim Cooney, LHP, Grade B-: Third round 2012 pick from Wake Forest posted outstanding 125/18 K/BB ratio in Double-A last year. Throws three solid pitches for strikes, keeps hitters off-balance like a master, should fit as fourth or fifth starter on a big league team.
21. Sam Selman, LHP, Grade B- (ROYALS): 3.38 ERA with 128/85 K/BB in 126 innings in High-A. Absolutely has to get the walks down at higher levels but excels at keeping the ball in the park with sinker and slider. Needs a third pitch to thrive as a starter and better command to avoid turning into Chris Dwyer.
22. Vic Black, RHP, Grade B- (METS): He can dominate out of the bullpen and has closer potential if he throws enough strikes. Nice pickup in the Marlon Byrd/John Buck deal with the Pirates.
23. Gosuke Katoh, 2B, Grade B- (Yankees): Strong debut from ’13 second-rounder with positive defensive reports and more pop than expected in rookie ball (.310/.402/.522). Beware GCL stars bearing hot stats, but Katoh has the scouting reports to back it up.
Steven Souza, OF, Grade B-: Older prospect turns 25 this month, held back earlier in his career by injuries, PED suspension, excessive strikeouts, and makeup issues. The Nationals didn’t give up on him because he has intriguing power/speed combination and will take a walk. High-shelf tools here and the skills have improved a lot. Just needs to keep himself together.
Tony Renda, 2B, Grade B-: Undersized 5-8 second baseman from University of California shows baseball skills, polished hitter with good plate discipline and some gap power, 48-for-57 in steals so far in his career, gets on base, steady glove, terrific makeup. We need to see him at higher levels but he has outperformed expectations in college as well as pro ball. Consistently plays above his tools and I think that will continue.
24. Carson Kelly, C-3B, Grade B-: Grade C+: He didn’t perform too well in A-ball last year and we’ll have to see how the conversion to catching from third base works out, but I still find Kelly’s bat to be intriguing with a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power. I believe in the potential that made him a second round pick in ’12 enough to show some patience at this stage.
25. Dorssys Paulino, SS, Grade B-: Borderline C+: High upside infielder struggled some in the Midwest League at age 18 but tools are obvious and he played better late in the year. Defensive tools may fit best at third base but he may not develop enough power for the hot corner.
26. Orlando Arcia, SS, Grade C+: Borderline B- (BREWERS): I love the glove, excellent defensive tools and more reliable than the typical 19 year old shortstop. Bat is weak at this point but I think it is developable given his knack for contact. I would not expect big numbers in the Florida State League, but seems like a guy with long-term value.
27. Mitch Haniger, OF, Grade C+: Borderline B- (BREWERS): No glaring strengths, but no huge weaknesses, does a lot of things reasonably well, good fielder with moderate power, could hit .260 with a decent OBP. Personification of a Brewers prospect.
28. Cody Martin, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B- (BRAVES): Could rank as high as 9. Workmanlike strike-thrower should be ready for major league trial in ’14, could be a fourth/fifth starter or fit a variety of bullpen roles. Closed in college at Gonzaga but Braves have used him as a starter with good results.
29. Michael Ynoa, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Possible outcomes: number two starter; number four starter; power closer; mediocre middle reliever; Triple-A washout. I recognize his immense potential but I want to see more to make sure he’s not the Dominican version of Todd Van Poppel.
30. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade C+ (BLUE JAYS): Tough to rank since he will miss most or all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery and recovery isn’t automatic for everyone. Good command of fastball/slider/changeup arsenal impressed Midwest League sources before he got hurt. MLB: (93)
Other C+: Ariel Pena, RHP (BREWERS), David Goforth, RHP (BREWERS), Johnny Hellweg, RHP, (BREWERS), Sean Gilmartin, LHP, (TWINS), Trayce Thompson, OF, (WHITE SOX), Mark Sappington, RHP, (ANGELS), Darnell Sweeney, SS, (DODGERS), Zane Evans, C, (ROYALS), Chris Bostick, 2B, (RANGERS), James Ramsey, OF, (CARDINALS), Max Muncy, 1B, (A'S), Tyler Naquin, OF, (INDIANS), Eury Perez, OF, (NATIONALS), Zach Walters, INF, (NATIONALS)
Others: Cameron Garfield, C (BREWERS), Caleb Gindl, OF (BREWERS), Drew Gagnon, RHP (BREWERS), Jorge Lopez, RHP (BREWERS), Nick Bucci, RHP (BREWERS), Jan Hernandez, 3B, (PHILLIES), Andrew Knapp, C, (PHILLIES)