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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2015 3:26:29 GMT -5
Can you just use 2014 player rater numbers so we have some type of idea of what the arb salaries would of been this year? Just to give us some examples? The problem here is that the 'default' player rater values you find at the top of the ESPN page (ie here: games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater) are for 5x5 leagues, and are not necessarily accurate considering our own league context. You can find player rater values which are calculated specifically for our format (the best place for these is in the 'Players' view under the 'Research' tab), but these are not stored from year-to-year. This is why showing examples of how this would work considering last year's player performances is tricky. The proposal is that these values are captured at the end of a season and copied to a place on our forum so that they can be looked up if/when needed.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2015 11:07:07 GMT -5
Nevermind
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Turbanator
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Post by Turbanator on Aug 17, 2015 12:29:57 GMT -5
If you guys want a rough estimation, the equation posted in the second post was derived from the generic relief pitcher statistics from last season. That is, not adjusted for our league settings, but the rater values from here. For reference: Greg Holland 4.045 Aroldis Chapman 3.4 Craig Kimbrel 4.0 The issue being that the generic rater doesn't account for holds, so our actual results would be a bit different. If you guys can tell me specifically what about this approach you are concerned with, then either let me know here or via PM and I'll explain the method to you/assuage your concerns.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2015 12:35:44 GMT -5
How are the formulas for each position going to be calculated? How did you come to the numbers for the RP scale that you have shown?
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Turbanator
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Post by Turbanator on Aug 17, 2015 21:42:36 GMT -5
How are the formulas for each position going to be calculated? How did you come to the numbers for the RP scale that you have shown? Determining the formulas: - Sort the entire player pool by player rater data, and move all players with a positive player rater value to Excel
- Separate out contract salaried players, and enter their corresponding salary values into Excel
- Organize these players into separate lists by position. SP, RP, 3B, OF, etc.
- From each individual list, you can make a graph/chart of player rater value versus salary.
- On this graph, plot a linear regression for all of the data points, which will provide an equation for the regression. Using this equation as the baseline distribution of contract salaries versus performance in the open market, we can plug in any arbitration eligible player's player rater value from the previous season and get a raw salary number.
RP Scale Numbers:
- These values are the values from the regression equation I plotted for the pool of contract salaried RPs
- So like I said in the previous, I separated out the RPs in our league who had a positive Player Rater value for 2014, then pulled out the ones on contracts. Then I plotted their contract salary versus player rater, and plotted the regression.
- So the distribution of contract salaries versus previous year's performance allows for you to plug in the 2014 player rater for any arbitration player and have a corresponding raw salary spat back out.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2015 6:39:47 GMT -5
What is the minimum number of contracted/salaried players needed to be entered onto a graph to get a reasonable result? There's only 17 catchers with +ve player rater scores at the moment, and by rough eye-check only half-a-dozen of them are non-arb. With that number of graph plots doesn't one contract (Miguel Montero, perhaps?) massively skew the graph (and therefore the line and the calculation and the resulting salaries)?
Why are negative-valued players disregarded from the graph? Extreme example - if Miggy ($15.5 salary) scored a player rater value over the season of -0.01 he wouldn't affect 1B salaries at all for the following season. However, if he scores +0.01 (which in reality is no different from -0.01) he's counted on the graph, significantly skewing the graph (and therefore the line and the calculation and the resulting salaries)?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2015 9:17:37 GMT -5
Quick question: How would a player with multiple position eligibility be calculated? Extreme example would be Be Zobrist? His value might be less if we rate him against 3B vs. 2B. Would we just pick the position he played the most?
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Turbanator
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Post by Turbanator on Aug 18, 2015 15:13:57 GMT -5
What is the minimum number of contracted/salaried players needed to be entered onto a graph to get a reasonable result? There's only 17 catchers with +ve player rater scores at the moment, and by rough eye-check only half-a-dozen of them are non-arb. With that number of graph plots doesn't one contract (Miguel Montero, perhaps?) massively skew the graph (and therefore the line and the calculation and the resulting salaries)? Why are negative-valued players disregarded from the graph? Extreme example - if Miggy ($15.5 salary) scored a player rater value over the season of -0.01 he wouldn't affect 1B salaries at all for the following season. However, if he scores +0.01 (which in reality is no different from -0.01) he's counted on the graph, significantly skewing the graph (and therefore the line and the calculation and the resulting salaries)? As long as we have 5-10 points, this should be viable. I think the benefit of this approach is if a player's salary is disproportionately high relative to low production, then they will deflate catcher salaries, which would be reflective of how volatile the free agent catcher market is. Basically, if players perform relative to salary, you pay what they're worth in FA with an added discount. If players with low contract salaries perform well, or high contract salaries perform poorly, then arbitration values get depressed to account for this volatility, which in contract terms is roughly year to year. Keep in mind that a player near a low player rater value would not be impacted in terms of salary, they would likely default to the minimum 1.0 The logic behind neglecting negative players would be that players who perform negatively don't reflect the salary distribution in the free market. But I see the concern. An alternative would be to take something like the top 50% of eligible contributors or something like that, but that would require some further thought.
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Turbanator
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Post by Turbanator on Aug 18, 2015 15:19:12 GMT -5
Quick question: How would a player with multiple position eligibility be calculated? Extreme example would be Be Zobrist? His value might be less if we rate him against 3B vs. 2B. Would we just pick the position he played the most? My thinking was the position played most, but this is something to discuss. There could be groupings of positional categories for larger sample sizes(i.e. SS/2B, 1B/DH), or a player like Zobrist could be included for each position they are eligible to play. Or like you said the position they played most.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2015 6:10:25 GMT -5
OK, everyone has had an opportunity to look at this and ask any questions that they might have.
I feel that at the moment we have many teams already looking forward to 2016, and we need to get next year's arb salary confirmed as soon as possible to help these teams with their plans.
Unless anyone has any objections (for which I'll allow 2 days for them to contact me) I'll put together some rule votes proposals, clear this with the other admins, and get them posted as soon as possible.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2015 19:06:35 GMT -5
Just my 2 cents...
While I like Turbs Suggestion I don't fully understand the formula. Also not having a full grasp on what the formula will be till the end of each season really puts some of us at a disadvantage if you are making trades to open up cap or to understand what cap space you may be dealing with per the offseason.
I think the other arb proposal at least deals with the large issues I had with RP arb salaries and some of the disparities with the top 1 percenters (the Brantley' of the world".
We can keep tweaking this but I think the other arb proposal if put in effect now can help off season planning and still leaves us a framework for tweaking in the future.
Like I said just my 2 cents.
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Turbanator
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Post by Turbanator on Aug 19, 2015 19:14:55 GMT -5
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Turbanator
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Post by Turbanator on Aug 19, 2015 19:31:28 GMT -5
Guys, keep in mind that the bandings from the other proposal aren't the ones we would be using this offseason if that option went through. We would still need to wait until the offseason to figure out where the bandings stand, as they would be based off the top 5/10/20/40/60 from this current 2015 season. saltman @sikwitit2113 @jp The other proposal would yield 2015 salaries of: Michael Brantley 10.4 Wade Davis 4.1 FYI
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2015 19:49:15 GMT -5
I was a business major so I didn't have to work on linear regressions. How dare you try to teach me things!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2015 19:54:22 GMT -5
Why wouldn't this be implemented this offseason?
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